Riding profile
South Leicestershire
The question
South Leicestershire: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Leicestershire | 32.3% | 29.0% | 14.8% | 14.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +6.9 | 19.3% +9.7 | 21.8% −7.1 | 11.4% +2.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South Leicestershire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alberto Costa
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Costa Elected | Conservative | 18,264 | 35.6 | — |
| Robert Parkinson | Labour | 12,758 | 24.8 | — |
| Bill Piper | Reform UK | 10,235 | 19.9 | — |
| Paul Hartshorn | Lib Dems | 7,621 | 14.8 | — |
| Mike Jelfs | Green | 2,481 | 4.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029