Riding profile
South Leicestershire
The question
South Leicestershire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
South Leicestershire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alberto Costa
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Leicestershire | 31.0% | 29.5% | 15.7% | 13.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.6 | 18.9% +10.6 | 21.7% −6.0 | 11.6% +1.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Costa Elected | Conservative | 18,264 | 35.6 | — |
| Robert Parkinson | Labour | 12,758 | 24.8 | — |
| Bill Piper | Reform UK | 10,235 | 19.9 | — |
| Paul Hartshorn | Lib Dems | 7,621 | 14.8 | — |
| Mike Jelfs | Green | 2,481 | 4.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029