Riding profile

South Leicestershire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

South Leicestershire: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

South Leicestershire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alberto Costa

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.0%
  • Conservative 29.5%
  • Labour 15.7%
  • Lib Dems 13.3%
  • Green 9.2%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereSouth Leicestershire 31.0%29.5%15.7%13.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +5.6 18.9% +10.6 21.7% −6.0 11.6% +1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alberto Costa Elected Conservative 18,264 35.6
Robert Parkinson Labour 12,758 24.8
Bill Piper Reform UK 10,235 19.9
Paul Hartshorn Lib Dems 7,621 14.8
Mike Jelfs Green 2,481 4.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,410
Median age
43
Employment rate
85.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029