Riding profile

Rugby

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Rugby: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.9%
  • Conservative 25.8%
  • Labour 24.7%
  • Green 9.3%
  • Lib Dems 7.8%
  • Other 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereRugby 29.9%25.8%24.7%9.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.5 19.3% +6.5 21.8% +2.9 10.8% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Rugby, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

John Slinger

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Slinger Elected Labour 19,533 39.9 —
Yousef Dahmash Conservative 15,105 30.8 —
Devenne Kedward Reform UK 8,225 16.8 —
Richard Dickson Lib Dems 3,252 6.6 —
Becca Stevenson Green 2,556 5.2 —
Mark Townsend Other 215 0.4 —
Anand Swayamprakasam Other 118 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,196
Median age
40
Employment rate
81.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029