Riding profile
Rugby
The question
Rugby: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Rugby, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
John Slinger
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRugby | 29.0% | 25.6% | 25.2% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.6 | 18.9% +6.7 | 21.7% +3.6 | 11.8% −2.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Slinger Elected | Labour | 19,533 | 39.9 | — |
| Yousef Dahmash | Conservative | 15,105 | 30.8 | — |
| Devenne Kedward | Reform UK | 8,225 | 16.8 | — |
| Richard Dickson | Lib Dems | 3,252 | 6.6 | — |
| Becca Stevenson | Green | 2,556 | 5.2 | — |
| Mark Townsend | Other | 215 | 0.4 | — |
| Anand Swayamprakasam | Other | 118 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029