Riding profile

Coventry North West

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Coventry North West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 31.9%
  • Reform UK 31.3%
  • Conservative 16.7%
  • Green 12.0%
  • Lib Dems 5.2%
  • Other 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereCoventry North West 31.9%31.3%16.7%12.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +10.1 25.4% +6.0 19.3% −2.6 10.8% +1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Coventry North West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Taiwo Owatemi

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Taiwo Owatemi Elected Labour 19,696 46.9 —
Tom Mercer Conservative 8,522 20.3 —
Holly-Mae Nelson Reform UK 7,950 18.9 —
Esther Reeves Green 3,420 8.1 —
Tom Holder Lib Dems 1,931 4.6 —
Elizabeth Richards Other 511 1.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,006
Median age
37
Employment rate
72.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029