Riding profile

Coventry North West

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Coventry North West: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Coventry North West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Taiwo Owatemi

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.5%
  • Reform UK 29.6%
  • Conservative 16.8%
  • Green 13.7%
  • Lib Dems 6.6%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereCoventry North West 30.5%29.6%16.8%13.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +8.9 25.3% +4.2 18.9% −2.1 11.8% +1.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Taiwo Owatemi Elected Labour 19,696 46.9
Tom Mercer Conservative 8,522 20.3
Holly-Mae Nelson Reform UK 7,950 18.9
Esther Reeves Green 3,420 8.1
Tom Holder Lib Dems 1,931 4.6
Elizabeth Richards Other 511 1.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,006
Median age
37
Employment rate
72.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029