Riding profile

Coventry East

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Coventry East: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Coventry East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mary Creagh

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 32.2%
  • Reform UK 30.0%
  • Conservative 12.9%
  • Green 12.8%
  • Lib Dems 6.6%
  • Other 5.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereCoventry East 32.2%30.0%12.9%12.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +10.6 25.3% +4.7 18.9% −6.0 11.8% +1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
31.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-31.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mary Creagh Elected Labour 18,308 49.5
Iddrisu Sufyan Reform UK 6,685 18.1
Sarah Lesadd Conservative 6,240 16.9
Stephen Gray Green 2,730 7.4
Mike Massimi Lib Dems 1,227 3.3
Paul Bedson Other 1,027 2.8
Dave Nellist Other 797 2.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
121,159
Median age
35
Employment rate
74.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029