Nuneaton
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 75%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuneaton | 31.4% | 28.0% | 24.3% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 22.3%+9.1 | 26.5%+1.5 | 20.0%+4.2 | 9.7%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,956 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 74.6% |
Current member
Jodie Gosling · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jodie Gosling Elected | Labour | 15,216 | 36.9 |
| Marcus Jones | Conservative | 11,737 | 28.5 |
| Rob Howard | Reform UK | 9,059 | 22.0 |
| Keith Kondakor | Green | 2,894 | 7.0 |
| Joy Salaja | Lib Dems | 1,340 | 3.3 |
| John Homer | Other | 967 | 2.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Warwickshire and Bedworth Reform UK, competitive
- Coventry North West Labour, safe seat
- Coventry East Labour, safe seat
- Coventry South Labour, safe seat
- Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative, toss-up
- Rugby Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated