Riding profile

Nuneaton

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Nuneaton: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Nuneaton, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jodie Gosling

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.1%
  • Conservative 24.4%
  • Labour 22.6%
  • Green 12.2%
  • Lib Dems 4.9%
  • Other 3.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereNuneaton 32.1%24.4%22.6%12.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +6.8 18.9% +5.5 21.7% +0.9 11.8% +0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jodie Gosling Elected Labour 15,216 36.9
Marcus Jones Conservative 11,737 28.5
Rob Howard Reform UK 9,059 22.0
Keith Kondakor Green 2,894 7.0
Joy Salaja Lib Dems 1,340 3.3
John Homer Other 967 2.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,956
Median age
39
Employment rate
74.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029