Riding profile

Nuneaton

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Nuneaton: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.7%
  • Conservative 24.6%
  • Labour 22.5%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Other 4.1%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereNuneaton 34.7%24.6%22.5%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.3 19.3% +5.3 21.8% +0.7 10.8% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Nuneaton, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jodie Gosling

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jodie Gosling Elected Labour 15,216 36.9 —
Marcus Jones Conservative 11,737 28.5 —
Rob Howard Reform UK 9,059 22.0 —
Keith Kondakor Green 2,894 7.0 —
Joy Salaja Lib Dems 1,340 3.3 —
John Homer Other 967 2.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,956
Median age
39
Employment rate
74.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029