Riding profile

Coventry South

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Coventry South: will Other lose this seat to Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.0%
  • Reform UK 26.4%
  • Conservative 17.8%
  • Green 12.2%
  • Lib Dems 5.7%
  • Other 4.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereCoventry South 33.0%26.4%17.8%12.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +11.2 25.4% +1.0 19.3% −1.5 10.8% +1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Coventry South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Zarah Sultana

Sits with Other

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Zarah Sultana Elected Labour 20,361 47.6
Mattie Heaven Conservative 10,160 23.8
Chris Baddon Reform UK 5,711 13.4
Stephen Richmond Lib Dems 2,531 5.9
Anne Patterson Green 2,363 5.5
Mohammed Syed Other 777 1.8
Alastair Mellon Other 334 0.8
Niko Omilana Other 263 0.6
Joshua Morland Other 231 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
125,435
Median age
30
Employment rate
68.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029