Riding profile

Kenilworth and Southam

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Kenilworth and Southam: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Editorial read

Kenilworth and Southam, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Jeremy Wright

Sits with Conservative

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 30.1%
  • Reform UK 24.3%
  • Lib Dems 16.9%
  • Labour 15.9%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Other 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereKenilworth and Southam 30.1%24.3%16.9%15.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +11.3 25.3% −1.1 11.6% +5.3 21.7% −5.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jeremy Wright Elected Conservative 19,395 36.4
Cat Price Labour 12,821 24.1
Jenny Wilkinson Lib Dems 10,464 19.6
Jacqui Harris Reform UK 6,920 13.0
Alix Dearing Green 3,125 5.9
Nick Green Other 442 0.8
Paul De'Ath Other 153 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,162
Median age
46
Employment rate
78.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029