Riding profile
Kenilworth and Southam
The question
Kenilworth and Southam: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.6
- P(close race)
- 96%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKenilworth and Southam | 30.1% | 25.4% | 16.6% | 15.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +10.8 | 25.4% +0.1 | 11.4% +5.2 | 21.8% −6.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Kenilworth and Southam, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Jeremy Wright
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Wright Elected | Conservative | 19,395 | 36.4 | — |
| Cat Price | Labour | 12,821 | 24.1 | — |
| Jenny Wilkinson | Lib Dems | 10,464 | 19.6 | — |
| Jacqui Harris | Reform UK | 6,920 | 13.0 | — |
| Alix Dearing | Green | 3,125 | 5.9 | — |
| Nick Green | Other | 442 | 0.8 | — |
| Paul De'Ath | Other | 153 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029