Riding profile
Stratford-on-Avon
The question
Stratford-on-Avon: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStratford-on-Avon | 36.0% | 27.4% | 24.8% | 5.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +24.7 | 25.4% +2.0 | 19.3% +5.5 | 10.8% −4.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Stratford-on-Avon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Manuela Perteghella
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuela Perteghella Elected | Lib Dems | 23,450 | 44.3 | — |
| Chris Clarkson | Conservative | 16,328 | 30.8 | — |
| James Crocker | Reform UK | 7,753 | 14.6 | — |
| Seyi Agboola | Labour | 3,753 | 7.1 | — |
| Doug Rouxel | Green | 1,197 | 2.3 | — |
| Kevin Taylor | Other | 292 | 0.6 | — |
| Neil O'Neil | Other | 186 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029