Riding profile
Birmingham Yardley
The question
Birmingham Yardley: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Birmingham Yardley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 25% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jess Phillips
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBirmingham Yardley | 24.8% | 22.9% | 21.8% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% −0.6 | 21.7% +1.2 | 4.8% +17.0 | 11.6% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Phillips Elected | Labour | 11,275 | 31.2 | — |
| Jody McIntyre | Other | 10,582 | 29.3 | — |
| Nora Kamberi | Reform UK | 5,061 | 14.0 | — |
| Roger Harmer | Lib Dems | 3,634 | 10.1 | — |
| Yvonne Clements | Conservative | 3,634 | 10.1 | — |
| Roxanne Green | Green | 1,958 | 5.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Solihull West and ShirleyConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Birmingham Hall Green and MoseleyOther Safe seatOpen →
- Birmingham LadywoodOther Toss-upOpen →
- Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Sutton ColdfieldConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029