Riding profile

Birmingham Yardley

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Birmingham Yardley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Other

Toss-up

Probability
89%
Mean margin (pts)
0.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 25.3%
  • Labour 24.9%
  • Reform UK 21.0%
  • Conservative 10.0%
  • Lib Dems 9.7%
  • Green 8.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Labour Reform UK Conservative
HereBirmingham Yardley 25.3%24.9%21.0%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 5.0% +20.3 21.8% +3.1 25.4% −4.4 19.3% −9.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Birmingham Yardley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 25% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jess Phillips

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jess Phillips Elected Labour 11,275 31.2 —
Jody McIntyre Other 10,582 29.3 —
Nora Kamberi Reform UK 5,061 14.0 —
Roger Harmer Lib Dems 3,634 10.1 —
Yvonne Clements Conservative 3,634 10.1 —
Roxanne Green Green 1,958 5.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
114,295
Median age
33
Employment rate
65.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029