Riding profile

Birmingham Ladywood

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Birmingham Ladywood: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 32.9%
  • Other 31.7%
  • Green 15.1%
  • Reform UK 11.9%
  • Conservative 4.3%
  • Lib Dems 3.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Other Green Reform UK
HereBirmingham Ladywood 32.9%31.7%15.1%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +11.1 5.0% +26.7 10.8% +4.3 25.4% −13.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Birmingham Ladywood, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 32% for another party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Shabana Mahmood

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shabana Mahmood Elected Labour 15,558 42.5
Akhmed Yakoob Other 12,137 33.2
Zoe Challenor Green 3,478 9.5
Shaz Muzammil Conservative 2,218 6.1
Lee Dargue Lib Dems 1,711 4.7
Irene Yoong-Henery Reform UK 1,477 4.0

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
156,820
Median age
27
Employment rate
63.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029