Riding profile

Birmingham Edgbaston

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Birmingham Edgbaston: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Birmingham Edgbaston, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Preet Kaur Gill

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 32.2%
  • Reform UK 22.4%
  • Conservative 18.4%
  • Green 12.3%
  • Other 8.1%
  • Lib Dems 6.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereBirmingham Edgbaston 32.2%22.4%18.4%12.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +10.5 25.3% −3.0 18.9% −0.5 11.8% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
22.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Preet Gill Elected Labour 16,599 44.4
Ashvir Sangha Conservative 8,231 22.0
Joshua Mathews Reform UK 4,363 11.7
Ammar Waraich Other 3,336 8.9
Nicola Payne Green 2,797 7.5
Colin Green Lib Dems 2,102 5.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
108,160
Median age
35
Employment rate
65.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029