Riding profile
Birmingham Edgbaston
The question
Birmingham Edgbaston: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBirmingham Edgbaston | 34.0% | 22.1% | 18.6% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +12.2 | 25.4% −3.3 | 19.3% −0.8 | 10.8% +0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Birmingham Edgbaston, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Preet Kaur Gill
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preet Gill Elected | Labour | 16,599 | 44.4 | — |
| Ashvir Sangha | Conservative | 8,231 | 22.0 | — |
| Joshua Mathews | Reform UK | 4,363 | 11.7 | — |
| Ammar Waraich | Other | 3,336 | 8.9 | — |
| Nicola Payne | Green | 2,797 | 7.5 | — |
| Colin Green | Lib Dems | 2,102 | 5.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029