Riding profile
Birmingham Selly Oak
The question
Birmingham Selly Oak: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBirmingham Selly Oak | 34.8% | 25.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +13.0 | 25.4% +0.5 | 10.8% +3.9 | 19.3% −8.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Birmingham Selly Oak, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Al Carns
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Carns Elected | Labour | 17,371 | 45.2 | — |
| Simon Phipps | Conservative | 5,834 | 15.2 | — |
| Erin Crawford | Reform UK | 5,732 | 14.9 | — |
| Jane Baston | Green | 4,320 | 11.2 | — |
| Kamel Hawwash | Other | 2,842 | 7.4 | — |
| Dave Radcliffe | Lib Dems | 2,324 | 6.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029