Riding profile

Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley: will Labour lose this seat to Other?

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 34.5%
  • Labour 23.5%
  • Green 14.2%
  • Reform UK 12.5%
  • Lib Dems 7.7%
  • Conservative 7.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Labour Green Reform UK
HereBirmingham Hall Green and Moseley 34.5%23.5%14.2%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 5.0% +29.5 21.8% +1.7 10.8% +3.4 25.4% −12.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 35% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tahir Ali

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
3.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tahir Ali Elected Labour 12,798 30.8
Shakeel Afsar Other 7,142 17.2
Mohammed Hafeez Other 6,159 14.8
Izzy Knowles Lib Dems 4,711 11.3
Zain Ahmed Green 3,913 9.4
Henry Morris Conservative 3,845 9.2
Stephen McBrine Reform UK 2,305 5.5
Babar Raja Other 733 1.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
118,220
Median age
33
Employment rate
66.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029