Riding profile
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
The question
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Other | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBirmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | 26.1% | 24.1% | 23.8% | 14.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +0.8 | 5.0% +19.0 | 21.8% +2.0 | 19.3% −4.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for another party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Liam Byrne
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Byrne Elected | Labour | 10,655 | 31.2 | — |
| James Giles | Other | 9,089 | 26.6 | — |
| Jamie Pullin | Reform UK | 6,456 | 18.9 | — |
| Caroline Clapper | Conservative | 4,634 | 13.6 | — |
| Imran Khan | Green | 2,360 | 6.9 | — |
| Qasim Esak | Lib Dems | 942 | 2.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029