Riding profile

Sutton Coldfield

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Sutton Coldfield: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Editorial read

Sutton Coldfield, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Andrew Mitchell

Sits with Conservative

Since
2001-06-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 32.5%
  • Reform UK 26.9%
  • Labour 21.9%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Other 2.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereSutton Coldfield 32.5%26.9%21.9%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +13.6 25.3% +1.5 21.7% +0.2 11.8% −2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
5.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Mitchell Elected Conservative 18,502 38.3
Rob Pocock Labour 15,959 33.0
Mark Hoath Reform UK 8,213 17.0
John Sweeney Lib Dems 2,587 5.3
Ben Auton Green 2,419 5.0
Wajad Burkey Other 653 1.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,423
Median age
45
Employment rate
88.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029