Riding profile
Sutton Coldfield
The question
Sutton Coldfield: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Sutton Coldfield, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Andrew Mitchell
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSutton Coldfield | 32.5% | 26.9% | 21.9% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +13.6 | 25.3% +1.5 | 21.7% +0.2 | 11.8% −2.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mitchell Elected | Conservative | 18,502 | 38.3 | — |
| Rob Pocock | Labour | 15,959 | 33.0 | — |
| Mark Hoath | Reform UK | 8,213 | 17.0 | — |
| John Sweeney | Lib Dems | 2,587 | 5.3 | — |
| Ben Auton | Green | 2,419 | 5.0 | — |
| Wajad Burkey | Other | 653 | 1.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029