Riding profile
Sutton Coldfield
The question
Sutton Coldfield: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSutton Coldfield | 31.7% | 28.7% | 23.5% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +12.4 | 25.4% +3.3 | 21.8% +1.7 | 10.8% −3.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Sutton Coldfield, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Andrew Mitchell
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mitchell Elected | Conservative | 18,502 | 38.3 | — |
| Rob Pocock | Labour | 15,959 | 33.0 | — |
| Mark Hoath | Reform UK | 8,213 | 17.0 | — |
| John Sweeney | Lib Dems | 2,587 | 5.3 | — |
| Ben Auton | Green | 2,419 | 5.0 | — |
| Wajad Burkey | Other | 653 | 1.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029