Riding profile
Birmingham Perry Barr
The question
Birmingham Perry Barr: will Independent lose this seat to Other?
Current forecast
Other
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBirmingham Perry Barr | 36.8% | 25.2% | 14.6% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0% +31.8 | 21.8% +3.4 | 25.4% −10.8 | 10.8% +0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Birmingham Perry Barr, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 37% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ayoub Khan
Sits with Independent
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayoub Khan Elected | Other | 13,303 | 35.5 | — |
| Khalid Mahmood | Labour | 12,796 | 34.1 | — |
| Garry Hickton | Conservative | 4,227 | 11.3 | — |
| Akshay Khuttan | Reform UK | 2,446 | 6.5 | — |
| Kefentse Dennis | Green | 2,440 | 6.5 | — |
| Sabah Hamed | Lib Dems | 1,302 | 3.5 | — |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 509 | 1.4 | — |
| Shangara Singh | Other | 453 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029