Riding profile

Birmingham Perry Barr

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Birmingham Perry Barr: will Independent lose this seat to Other?

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 36.8%
  • Labour 25.2%
  • Reform UK 14.6%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Conservative 8.8%
  • Lib Dems 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Labour Reform UK Green
HereBirmingham Perry Barr 36.8%25.2%14.6%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 5.0% +31.8 21.8% +3.4 25.4% −10.8 10.8% +0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Birmingham Perry Barr, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 37% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ayoub Khan

Sits with Independent

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Other
Margin
3.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ayoub Khan Elected Other 13,303 35.5
Khalid Mahmood Labour 12,796 34.1
Garry Hickton Conservative 4,227 11.3
Akshay Khuttan Reform UK 2,446 6.5
Kefentse Dennis Green 2,440 6.5
Sabah Hamed Lib Dems 1,302 3.5
Niko Omilana Other 509 1.4
Shangara Singh Other 453 1.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
122,861
Median age
33
Employment rate
60.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029