Riding profile

Aldridge-Brownhills

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Aldridge-Brownhills: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Aldridge-Brownhills, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 33% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Wendy Morton

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 35.0%
  • Conservative 32.8%
  • Labour 17.3%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Lib Dems 5.0%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereAldridge-Brownhills 35.0%32.8%17.3%8.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +9.7 18.9% +13.9 21.7% −4.3 11.8% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Wendy Morton Elected Conservative 15,901 38.9
Luke Davies Labour 11,607 28.4
Graham Eardley Reform UK 9,903 24.2
Ian Garrett Lib Dems 1,755 4.3
Clare Nash Green 1,746 4.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,720
Median age
45
Employment rate
78.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029