Riding profile
Aldridge-Brownhills
The question
Aldridge-Brownhills: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Aldridge-Brownhills, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 33% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Wendy Morton
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAldridge-Brownhills | 35.0% | 32.8% | 17.3% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.7 | 18.9% +13.9 | 21.7% −4.3 | 11.8% −3.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendy Morton Elected | Conservative | 15,901 | 38.9 | — |
| Luke Davies | Labour | 11,607 | 28.4 | — |
| Graham Eardley | Reform UK | 9,903 | 24.2 | — |
| Ian Garrett | Lib Dems | 1,755 | 4.3 | — |
| Clare Nash | Green | 1,746 | 4.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029