Riding profile

Aldridge-Brownhills

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Aldridge-Brownhills: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 37.3%
  • Conservative 31.6%
  • Labour 18.4%
  • Green 6.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.0%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereAldridge-Brownhills 37.3%31.6%18.4%6.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +11.9 19.3% +12.3 21.8% −3.4 10.8% −4.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Aldridge-Brownhills, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 32% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Wendy Morton

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Wendy Morton Elected Conservative 15,901 38.9 —
Luke Davies Labour 11,607 28.4 —
Graham Eardley Reform UK 9,903 24.2 —
Ian Garrett Lib Dems 1,755 4.3 —
Clare Nash Green 1,746 4.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,720
Median age
45
Employment rate
78.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029