Riding profile

Cannock Chase

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Cannock Chase: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 41.5%
  • Conservative 23.5%
  • Labour 21.4%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Lib Dems 3.8%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereCannock Chase 41.5%23.5%21.4%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +16.2 19.3% +4.1 21.8% −0.4 10.8% −2.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Cannock Chase, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 42% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Josh Newbury

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
7.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Josh Newbury Elected Labour 15,671 36.5 —
Amanda Milling Conservative 12,546 29.2 —
Paul Allen Reform UK 11,570 26.9 —
Andrea Muckley Green 2,137 5.0 —
Elizabeth Jewkes Lib Dems 1,029 2.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,140
Median age
42
Employment rate
82.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029