Riding profile
Cannock Chase
The question
Cannock Chase: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Cannock Chase, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Josh Newbury
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCannock Chase | 38.4% | 23.9% | 21.4% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +13.0 | 18.9% +5.0 | 21.7% −0.3 | 11.8% −1.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Newbury Elected | Labour | 15,671 | 36.5 | — |
| Amanda Milling | Conservative | 12,546 | 29.2 | — |
| Paul Allen | Reform UK | 11,570 | 26.9 | — |
| Andrea Muckley | Green | 2,137 | 5.0 | — |
| Elizabeth Jewkes | Lib Dems | 1,029 | 2.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029