Riding profile

Wolverhampton South East

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Wolverhampton South East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 34.9%
  • Reform UK 34.5%
  • Conservative 14.6%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Other 4.0%
  • Lib Dems 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWolverhampton South East 34.9%34.5%14.6%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +13.1 25.4% +9.1 19.3% −4.7 10.8% −2.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wolverhampton South East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 34% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Pat McFadden

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
27.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pat McFadden Elected Labour 16,800 50.3
Carl Hardwick Reform UK 7,612 22.8
Victoria Wilson Conservative 5,654 16.9
Paul Darke Green 1,643 4.9
Athar Warraich Other 915 2.7
Bart Ricketts Lib Dems 758 2.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
122,195
Median age
36
Employment rate
73.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029