Riding profile

West Bromwich

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

West Bromwich: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
0.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 31.6%
  • Reform UK 31.6%
  • Conservative 17.1%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Other 6.0%
  • Lib Dems 4.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWest Bromwich 31.6%31.6%17.1%8.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +9.8 25.4% +6.3 19.3% −2.2 10.8% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

West Bromwich, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 32% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sarah Coombes

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Coombes Elected Labour 16,872 46.3 —
Will Goodhand Conservative 7,318 20.1 —
Ray Nock Reform UK 7,101 19.5 —
Gita Joshi Green 2,036 5.6 —
Mohammed Yasin Other 1,707 4.7 —
Parmjit Gill Lib Dems 1,314 3.6 —
Sam Harding Other 133 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,975
Median age
37
Employment rate
67.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029