Riding profile
Smethwick
The question
Smethwick: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Smethwick, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Gurinder Singh Josan
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSmethwick | 32.2% | 27.3% | 14.0% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +10.6 | 25.3% +2.0 | 11.8% +2.1 | 18.9% −8.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gurinder Josan Elected | Labour | 16,858 | 48.0 | — |
| Pete Durnell | Reform UK | 5,670 | 16.1 | — |
| Kate Fairhurst | Conservative | 4,546 | 12.9 | — |
| Roderick MacRorie | Green | 2,741 | 7.8 | — |
| Nahim Rubani | Other | 2,449 | 7.0 | — |
| Jay Anandou | Other | 1,322 | 3.8 | — |
| Oliver Patrick | Lib Dems | 1,018 | 2.9 | — |
| Christopher Graham | Other | 348 | 1.0 | — |
| Ravaldeep Bath | Other | 163 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029