Riding profile
Smethwick
The question
Smethwick: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSmethwick | 35.4% | 27.2% | 11.2% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +13.5 | 25.4% +1.8 | 19.3% −8.2 | 5.0% +6.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Smethwick, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Gurinder Singh Josan
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gurinder Josan Elected | Labour | 16,858 | 48.0 | — |
| Pete Durnell | Reform UK | 5,670 | 16.1 | — |
| Kate Fairhurst | Conservative | 4,546 | 12.9 | — |
| Roderick MacRorie | Green | 2,741 | 7.8 | — |
| Nahim Rubani | Other | 2,449 | 7.0 | — |
| Jay Anandou | Other | 1,322 | 3.8 | — |
| Oliver Patrick | Lib Dems | 1,018 | 2.9 | — |
| Christopher Graham | Other | 348 | 1.0 | — |
| Ravaldeep Bath | Other | 163 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029