Riding profile
Birmingham Northfield
The question
Birmingham Northfield: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Birmingham Northfield, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Laurence Turner
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBirmingham Northfield | 29.4% | 27.2% | 22.1% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.1 | 21.7% +5.5 | 18.9% +3.2 | 11.8% +0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Turner Elected | Labour | 14,929 | 39.6 | — |
| Gary Sambrook | Conservative | 9,540 | 25.3 | — |
| Stephen Peters | Reform UK | 7,895 | 21.0 | — |
| Robert Grant | Green | 2,809 | 7.5 | — |
| Jerry Evans | Lib Dems | 1,791 | 4.8 | — |
| Altaf Hussain | Other | 310 | 0.8 | — |
| Dick Rodgers | Other | 215 | 0.6 | — |
| Dean Gwilliam | Other | 163 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029