Riding profile
Bromsgrove
The question
Bromsgrove: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBromsgrove | 30.9% | 26.7% | 17.4% | 13.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +5.5 | 19.3% +7.4 | 21.8% −4.4 | 11.4% +2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bromsgrove, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Bradley Thomas
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Thomas Elected | Conservative | 16,533 | 32.8 | — |
| Neena Gill | Labour | 13,517 | 26.8 | — |
| Glen Brampton | Reform UK | 9,584 | 19.0 | — |
| David Nicholl | Lib Dems | 7,391 | 14.7 | — |
| Talia Ellis | Green | 1,675 | 3.3 | — |
| Sam Ammar | Other | 1,561 | 3.1 | — |
| Aheesha Zahir | Other | 144 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029