Riding profile

Bromsgrove

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Bromsgrove: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Bromsgrove, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Bradley Thomas

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.5%
  • Conservative 26.6%
  • Labour 16.4%
  • Lib Dems 14.6%
  • Green 7.7%
  • Other 4.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereBromsgrove 30.5%26.6%16.4%14.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +5.2 18.9% +7.7 21.7% −5.2 11.6% +2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bradley Thomas Elected Conservative 16,533 32.8
Neena Gill Labour 13,517 26.8
Glen Brampton Reform UK 9,584 19.0
David Nicholl Lib Dems 7,391 14.7
Talia Ellis Green 1,675 3.3
Sam Ammar Other 1,561 3.1
Aheesha Zahir Other 144 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,076
Median age
45
Employment rate
82.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029