Riding profile

Redditch

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Redditch: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.3%
  • Conservative 27.3%
  • Labour 20.3%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Other 3.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereRedditch 34.3%27.3%20.3%8.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +8.9 19.3% +8.0 21.8% −1.6 10.8% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Redditch, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chris Bloore

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Bloore Elected Labour 14,810 35.0
Rachel Maclean Conservative 14,021 33.1
Julie Allison Reform UK 8,516 20.1
Andrew Fieldsend-Roxborough Lib Dems 2,165 5.1
David Thain Green 2,098 5.0
Mohammed Amin Other 765 1.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,134
Median age
41
Employment rate
77.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029