Riding profile
Halesowen
The question
Halesowen: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Halesowen, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alex Ballinger
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHalesowen | 32.7% | 25.3% | 23.5% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.4 | 21.7% +3.7 | 18.9% +4.6 | 11.8% −1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ballinger Elected | Labour | 15,023 | 38.9 | — |
| James Morris | Conservative | 10,659 | 27.6 | — |
| Jonathan Oakton | Reform UK | 8,484 | 22.0 | — |
| Ryan Priest | Lib Dems | 2,261 | 5.9 | — |
| Emma Bullard | Green | 2,151 | 5.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029