Riding profile

Halesowen

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Halesowen: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 35.0%
  • Labour 25.8%
  • Conservative 22.8%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Lib Dems 6.8%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereHalesowen 35.0%25.8%22.8%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.6 21.8% +4.0 19.3% +3.5 10.8% −2.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Halesowen, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alex Ballinger

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
11.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alex Ballinger Elected Labour 15,023 38.9 —
James Morris Conservative 10,659 27.6 —
Jonathan Oakton Reform UK 8,484 22.0 —
Ryan Priest Lib Dems 2,261 5.9 —
Emma Bullard Green 2,151 5.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,196
Median age
41
Employment rate
76.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029