Riding profile
Dudley
The question
Dudley: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDudley | 37.0% | 24.4% | 22.5% | 6.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +11.6 | 19.3% +5.1 | 21.8% +0.7 | 10.8% −4.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Dudley, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sonia Kumar
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonia Kumar Elected | Labour | 12,215 | 34.1 | — |
| Marco Longhi | Conservative | 10,315 | 28.8 | — |
| Andrew Southall | Reform UK | 9,442 | 26.4 | — |
| Zia Qari | Green | 1,154 | 3.2 | — |
| Ian Flynn | Lib Dems | 1,056 | 3.0 | — |
| Shakeela Bibi | Other | 857 | 2.4 | — |
| Aftab Hussain | Other | 621 | 1.7 | — |
| Dharmanand Mortha | Other | 136 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029