Riding profile

Wolverhampton West

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Wolverhampton West: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 32.5%
  • Reform UK 26.2%
  • Conservative 22.1%
  • Green 7.9%
  • Other 7.2%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWolverhampton West 32.5%26.2%22.1%7.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +10.6 25.4% +0.8 19.3% +2.8 10.8% −2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wolverhampton West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Warinder Juss

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Warinder Juss Elected Labour 19,331 44.3 —
Mike Newton Conservative 11,463 26.3 —
Don Brookes Reform UK 6,078 13.9 —
Andrea Cantrill Green 2,550 5.8 —
Celia Hibbert Other 1,395 3.2 —
Phillip Howells Lib Dems 1,376 3.1 —
Zahid Shah Other 888 2.0 —
Vikas Chopra Other 576 1.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
113,748
Median age
40
Employment rate
76.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029