Riding profile

Stourbridge

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Stourbridge: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.6%
  • Conservative 25.8%
  • Labour 24.6%
  • Green 7.1%
  • Lib Dems 4.9%
  • Other 4.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereStourbridge 32.6%25.8%24.6%7.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.2 19.3% +6.5 21.8% +2.8 10.8% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Stourbridge, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Cat Eccles

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
7.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cat Eccles Elected Labour 15,338 38.5 —
Suzanne Webb Conservative 12,265 30.8 —
Richard Shaw Reform UK 7,869 19.7 —
Stephen Price Green 1,732 4.3 —
Christopher Bramall Lib Dems 1,607 4.0 —
Mohammed Ramzan Other 1,067 2.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,974
Median age
42
Employment rate
83.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029