Riding profile

Tipton and Wednesbury

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Tipton and Wednesbury: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.7%
  • Labour 25.1%
  • Conservative 21.6%
  • Green 7.4%
  • Other 6.0%
  • Lib Dems 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereTipton and Wednesbury 36.7%25.1%21.6%7.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +11.3 21.8% +3.3 19.3% +2.3 10.8% −3.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Tipton and Wednesbury, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Antonia Bance

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Antonia Bance Elected Labour 11,755 36.9
Shaun Bailey Conservative 8,370 26.3
Jack Sabharwal Reform UK 8,019 25.2
Mark Redding Green 1,509 4.7
Mohammed Hussain-Billa Other 945 3.0
Abdul Husen Other 660 2.1
Mark Rochell Lib Dems 592 1.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
114,582
Median age
37
Employment rate
56.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029