Riding profile

Wolverhampton North East

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Wolverhampton North East: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.4%
  • Labour 28.3%
  • Conservative 22.2%
  • Green 7.0%
  • Lib Dems 4.5%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereWolverhampton North East 36.4%28.3%22.2%7.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +11.0 21.8% +6.5 19.3% +2.9 10.8% −3.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wolverhampton North East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sureena Brackenridge

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sureena Brackenridge Elected Labour 14,282 42.9
Jane Stevenson Conservative 8,860 26.6
Paul Williams Reform UK 7,721 23.2
Kwaku Tano-Yeboah Green 1,424 4.3
Peter Thornton Lib Dems 1,002 3.0

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,811
Median age
38
Employment rate
74.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029