Riding profile
Walsall and Bloxwich
The question
Walsall and Bloxwich: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Walsall and Bloxwich, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 21% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Valerie Vaz
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWalsall and Bloxwich | 30.9% | 21.3% | 16.5% | 15.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.5 | 21.7% −0.3 | 4.8% +11.7 | 18.9% −3.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valerie Vaz Elected | Labour | 12,514 | 33.6 | — |
| Aftab Nawaz | Other | 7,600 | 20.4 | — |
| Elaine Williams | Reform UK | 7,293 | 19.6 | — |
| Shannon Lloyd | Conservative | 6,679 | 18.0 | — |
| Sadat Hussain | Green | 2,288 | 6.2 | — |
| Patrick Stillman | Lib Dems | 817 | 2.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029