Riding profile
Walsall and Bloxwich
The question
Walsall and Bloxwich: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWalsall and Bloxwich | 28.7% | 23.9% | 17.7% | 17.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +3.3 | 21.8% +2.1 | 19.3% −1.6 | 5.0% +12.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Walsall and Bloxwich, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Valerie Vaz
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valerie Vaz Elected | Labour | 12,514 | 33.6 | — |
| Aftab Nawaz | Other | 7,600 | 20.4 | — |
| Elaine Williams | Reform UK | 7,293 | 19.6 | — |
| Shannon Lloyd | Conservative | 6,679 | 18.0 | — |
| Sadat Hussain | Green | 2,288 | 6.2 | — |
| Patrick Stillman | Lib Dems | 817 | 2.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029