Riding profile

Walsall and Bloxwich

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Walsall and Bloxwich: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.7%
  • Labour 23.9%
  • Conservative 17.7%
  • Other 17.2%
  • Green 9.2%
  • Lib Dems 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Other
HereWalsall and Bloxwich 28.7%23.9%17.7%17.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.3 21.8% +2.1 19.3% −1.6 5.0% +12.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Walsall and Bloxwich, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Valerie Vaz

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Valerie Vaz Elected Labour 12,514 33.6
Aftab Nawaz Other 7,600 20.4
Elaine Williams Reform UK 7,293 19.6
Shannon Lloyd Conservative 6,679 18.0
Sadat Hussain Green 2,288 6.2
Patrick Stillman Lib Dems 817 2.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
118,282
Median age
35
Employment rate
63.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029