Riding profile

Kingswinford and South Staffordshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Kingswinford and South Staffordshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 35.0%
  • Conservative 32.5%
  • Labour 16.7%
  • Green 6.8%
  • Lib Dems 5.2%
  • Other 3.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereKingswinford and South Staffordshire 35.0%32.5%16.7%6.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.6 19.3% +13.2 21.8% −5.1 10.8% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Kingswinford and South Staffordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 32% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mike Wood

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mike Wood Elected Conservative 18,199 40.3
Sally Benton Labour 11,896 26.3
Gary Dale Reform UK 9,928 22.0
Gully Bansal Lib Dems 2,080 4.6
Claire McIlvenna Green 2,077 4.6
Shaz Saleem Other 1,000 2.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
89,388
Median age
49
Employment rate
79.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029