Riding profile

Worcester

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Worcester: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 27.5%
  • Reform UK 27.2%
  • Conservative 21.3%
  • Green 12.9%
  • Lib Dems 8.5%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWorcester 27.5%27.2%21.3%12.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +5.6 25.4% +1.8 19.3% +1.9 10.8% +2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Worcester, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 27% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tom Collins

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tom Collins Elected Labour 18,622 40.5
Marc Bayliss Conservative 11,506 25.0
Andy Peplow Reform UK 6,723 14.6
Tor Pingree Green 4,789 10.4
Mel Allcott Lib Dems 3,986 8.7
Mark Davies Other 280 0.6
Duncan Murray Other 130 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,120
Median age
40
Employment rate
75.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029