Riding profile

Wyre Forest

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Wyre Forest: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.3%
  • Conservative 26.6%
  • Labour 18.8%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.4%
  • Other 5.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereWyre Forest 34.3%26.6%18.8%8.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.0 19.3% +7.3 21.8% −3.0 10.8% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wyre Forest, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mark Garnier

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
1.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Garnier Elected Conservative 14,489 32.1 —
Vicki Smith Labour 13,677 30.3 —
Bill Hopkins Reform UK 9,682 21.4 —
Shazu Miah Lib Dems 2,809 6.2 —
John Davis Green 2,443 5.4 —
Leigh Whitehouse Other 1,535 3.4 —
Nigel Geary Other 523 1.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,328
Median age
47
Employment rate
82.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029