Riding profile
Wyre Forest
The question
Wyre Forest: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Wyre Forest, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mark Garnier
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWyre Forest | 33.2% | 26.4% | 17.5% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.9 | 18.9% +7.6 | 21.7% −4.1 | 11.8% −2.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Garnier Elected | Conservative | 14,489 | 32.1 | — |
| Vicki Smith | Labour | 13,677 | 30.3 | — |
| Bill Hopkins | Reform UK | 9,682 | 21.4 | — |
| Shazu Miah | Lib Dems | 2,809 | 6.2 | — |
| John Davis | Green | 2,443 | 5.4 | — |
| Leigh Whitehouse | Other | 1,535 | 3.4 | — |
| Nigel Geary | Other | 523 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029