Riding profile

West Worcestershire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

West Worcestershire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 30.4%
  • Reform UK 26.1%
  • Lib Dems 19.8%
  • Green 12.4%
  • Labour 9.2%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Green
HereWest Worcestershire 30.4%26.1%19.8%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +11.1 25.4% +0.7 11.4% +8.5 10.8% +1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

West Worcestershire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dame Harriett Baldwin

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Harriett Baldwin Elected Conservative 19,783 36.2 —
Dan Boatright-Greene Lib Dems 13,236 24.2 —
Kash Haroon Labour 8,335 15.2 —
Christopher Edmondson Reform UK 7,902 14.4 —
Natalie McVey Green 5,068 9.3 —
Seonaid Barber Other 363 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,828
Median age
51
Employment rate
76.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029