Riding profile

West Worcestershire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

West Worcestershire: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

West Worcestershire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dame Harriett Baldwin

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.0%
  • Reform UK 25.5%
  • Lib Dems 21.4%
  • Green 12.5%
  • Labour 9.5%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Green
HereWest Worcestershire 29.0%25.5%21.4%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +10.1 25.3% +0.1 11.6% +9.8 11.8% +0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Harriett Baldwin Elected Conservative 19,783 36.2
Dan Boatright-Greene Lib Dems 13,236 24.2
Kash Haroon Labour 8,335 15.2
Christopher Edmondson Reform UK 7,902 14.4
Natalie McVey Green 5,068 9.3
Seonaid Barber Other 363 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,828
Median age
51
Employment rate
76.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029