Riding profile

Tewkesbury

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Tewkesbury: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Tewkesbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Cameron Thomas

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 34.0%
  • Conservative 23.8%
  • Reform UK 23.7%
  • Green 9.7%
  • Labour 6.9%
  • Other 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereTewkesbury 34.0%23.8%23.7%9.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +22.4 18.9% +4.9 25.3% −1.7 11.8% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
12.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cameron Thomas Elected Lib Dems 20,730 42.7
Laurence Robertson Conservative 14,468 29.8
Byron Davis Reform UK 6,000 12.4
Damola Animashaun Labour 4,298 8.8
Cate Cody Green 2,873 5.9
David Edgar Other 170 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,711
Median age
44
Employment rate
84.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029