Riding profile
Cheltenham
The question
Cheltenham: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Cheltenham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 38% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Max Wilkinson
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCheltenham | 37.9% | 30.7% | 13.4% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +26.2 | 18.9% +11.8 | 25.3% −11.9 | 11.8% −2.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Wilkinson Elected | Lib Dems | 25,076 | 50.6 | — |
| Alex Chalk | Conservative | 17,866 | 36.1 | — |
| Daniel Wilson | Green | 3,160 | 6.4 | — |
| Lara Chaplin | Labour | 2,665 | 5.4 | — |
| Daud McDonald | Other | 775 | 1.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029