Riding profile
North Cotswolds
The question
North Cotswolds: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Cotswolds | 30.8% | 25.2% | 21.7% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +11.5 | 25.4% −0.1 | 11.4% +10.3 | 10.8% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North Cotswolds, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Elected | Conservative | 17,426 | 34.7 | — |
| Paul Hodgkinson | Lib Dems | 14,069 | 28.0 | — |
| Anna Mainwaring | Labour | 8,593 | 17.1 | — |
| Jason Preece | Reform UK | 6,502 | 12.9 | — |
| Chloe Turner | Green | 3,191 | 6.3 | — |
| Jean Blackbeard | Other | 448 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029