Riding profile

Swindon South

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Swindon South: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 29.1%
  • Reform UK 28.8%
  • Conservative 22.2%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.6%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereSwindon South 29.1%28.8%22.2%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +7.2 25.4% +3.4 19.3% +2.9 10.8% +0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Swindon South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Heidi Alexander

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Heidi Alexander Elected Labour 21,676 48.4 —
Robert Buckland Conservative 12,070 26.9 —
Catherine Kosidowski Reform UK 6,194 13.8 —
Roderick Hebden Green 2,539 5.7 —
Matthew McCabe Lib Dems 1,843 4.1 —
Martin Costello Other 472 1.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
113,834
Median age
39
Employment rate
76.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029