Riding profile
Swindon South
The question
Swindon South: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Swindon South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Heidi Alexander
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSwindon South | 29.9% | 27.4% | 22.1% | 11.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +8.2 | 25.3% +2.1 | 18.9% +3.3 | 11.8% |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi Alexander Elected | Labour | 21,676 | 48.4 | — |
| Robert Buckland | Conservative | 12,070 | 26.9 | — |
| Catherine Kosidowski | Reform UK | 6,194 | 13.8 | — |
| Roderick Hebden | Green | 2,539 | 5.7 | — |
| Matthew McCabe | Lib Dems | 1,843 | 4.1 | — |
| Martin Costello | Other | 472 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029