Riding profile
Melksham and Devizes
The question
Melksham and Devizes: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.2
- P(close race)
- 23%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMelksham and Devizes | 32.7% | 27.6% | 26.4% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +21.4 | 19.3% +8.2 | 25.4% +1.1 | 10.8% −2.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Melksham and Devizes, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Brian Mathew
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Mathew Elected | Lib Dems | 20,031 | 39.1 | — |
| Michelle Donelan | Conservative | 17,630 | 34.4 | — |
| Malcolm Cupis | Reform UK | 6,726 | 13.1 | — |
| Kerry Postlewhite | Labour | 4,587 | 9.0 | — |
| Catherine Read | Green | 2,229 | 4.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029