Riding profile

Melksham and Devizes

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Melksham and Devizes: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Melksham and Devizes, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Brian Mathew

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 30.8%
  • Conservative 27.8%
  • Reform UK 25.3%
  • Green 8.2%
  • Labour 6.6%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereMelksham and Devizes 30.8%27.8%25.3%8.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +19.2 18.9% +8.9 25.3% 11.8% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
4.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Brian Mathew Elected Lib Dems 20,031 39.1
Michelle Donelan Conservative 17,630 34.4
Malcolm Cupis Reform UK 6,726 13.1
Kerry Postlewhite Labour 4,587 9.0
Catherine Read Green 2,229 4.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,100
Median age
48
Employment rate
87.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029