Riding profile
Bath
The question
Bath: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBath | 35.7% | 19.1% | 15.6% | 12.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +24.4 | 25.4% −6.3 | 10.8% +4.8 | 21.8% −9.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bath, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 19% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Wera Hobhouse
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wera Hobhouse Elected | Lib Dems | 19,883 | 41.3 | — |
| Dan Bewley | Labour | 8,665 | 18.0 | — |
| James Wright | Conservative | 7,659 | 15.9 | — |
| Dom Tristram | Green | 5,952 | 12.4 | — |
| Teresa Hall | Reform UK | 3,798 | 7.9 | — |
| Colin Blackburn | Other | 1,749 | 3.6 | — |
| Matthew Alford | Other | 230 | 0.5 | — |
| Bill Blockhead | Other | 169 | 0.3 | — |
| A ON | Other | 25 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029