Riding profile

Bristol North East

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Bristol North East: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.0
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.0%
  • Green 24.9%
  • Reform UK 21.8%
  • Conservative 12.8%
  • Other 5.5%
  • Lib Dems 4.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereBristol North East 30.0%24.9%21.8%12.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +8.1 10.8% +14.1 25.4% −3.6 19.3% −6.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bristol North East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for the Green Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Damien Egan

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-02-15
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Damien Egan Elected Labour 19,004 45.3 —
Lorraine Francis Green 7,837 18.7 —
Rose Hulse Conservative 6,216 14.8 —
Anthony New Reform UK 5,418 12.9 —
Louise Harris Lib Dems 1,964 4.7 —
Asif Ali Other 1,029 2.5 —
Dan Smart Other 399 0.9 —
Tommy Trueman Other 122 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,433
Median age
36
Employment rate
73.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029