Riding profile
Thornbury and Yate
The question
Thornbury and Yate: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereThornbury and Yate | 34.9% | 26.0% | 25.9% | 7.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +23.5 | 19.3% +6.6 | 25.4% +0.5 | 10.8% −3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Thornbury and Yate, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Claire Young
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Young Elected | Lib Dems | 20,815 | 39.0 | — |
| Luke Hall | Conservative | 17,801 | 33.4 | — |
| Andrew Banwell | Reform UK | 7,529 | 14.1 | — |
| Rob Logan | Labour | 5,057 | 9.5 | — |
| Alexandra Jenner-Fust | Green | 2,165 | 4.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029