Riding profile
Thornbury and Yate
The question
Thornbury and Yate: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Thornbury and Yate, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Claire Young
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.4
- P(close race)
- 8%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereThornbury and Yate | 32.1% | 26.8% | 25.6% | 7.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +20.5 | 18.9% +7.9 | 25.3% +0.2 | 11.8% −4.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Young Elected | Lib Dems | 20,815 | 39.0 | — |
| Luke Hall | Conservative | 17,801 | 33.4 | — |
| Andrew Banwell | Reform UK | 7,529 | 14.1 | — |
| Rob Logan | Labour | 5,057 | 9.5 | — |
| Alexandra Jenner-Fust | Green | 2,165 | 4.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029