Riding profile

Bristol East

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Bristol East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Green

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 35.2%
  • Labour 30.5%
  • Conservative 12.2%
  • Reform UK 10.6%
  • Lib Dems 5.6%
  • Other 5.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Labour Conservative Reform UK
HereBristol East 35.2%30.5%12.2%10.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 10.8% +24.4 21.8% +8.7 19.3% −7.1 25.4% −14.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bristol East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 35% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kerry McCarthy

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
14.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kerry McCarthy Elected Labour 20,748 45.0 —
Ani Stafford-Townsend Green 14,142 30.7 —
Dan Conaghan Conservative 6,435 14.0 —
Tony Sutcliffe Lib Dems 2,713 5.9 —
Farooq Siddique Other 1,259 2.7 —
Claire Dunnage Other 555 1.2 —
Wael Arafat Other 257 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,757
Median age
35
Employment rate
75.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029