Riding profile
Bristol East
The question
Bristol East: will Labour lose this seat to Green?
Editorial read
Bristol East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 39% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kerry McCarthy
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Green
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Green | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBristol East | 39.5% | 28.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.8% +27.7 | 21.7% +7.2 | 25.3% −14.4 | 18.9% −8.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry McCarthy Elected | Labour | 20,748 | 45.0 | — |
| Ani Stafford-Townsend | Green | 14,142 | 30.7 | — |
| Dan Conaghan | Conservative | 6,435 | 14.0 | — |
| Tony Sutcliffe | Lib Dems | 2,713 | 5.9 | — |
| Farooq Siddique | Other | 1,259 | 2.7 | — |
| Claire Dunnage | Other | 555 | 1.2 | — |
| Wael Arafat | Other | 257 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029