Riding profile
Bristol South
The question
Bristol South: will Labour lose this seat to Green?
Editorial read
Bristol South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Karin Smyth
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Green
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Green | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBristol South | 35.1% | 26.6% | 20.5% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.8% +23.3 | 21.7% +5.0 | 25.3% −4.8 | 18.9% −9.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karin Smyth Elected | Labour | 18,521 | 42.7 | — |
| Jai Breitnauer | Green | 10,855 | 25.0 | — |
| Richard Visick | Reform UK | 6,195 | 14.3 | — |
| Liz Brennan | Conservative | 4,947 | 11.4 | — |
| Andrew Brown | Lib Dems | 2,721 | 6.3 | — |
| Neil Norton | Other | 164 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029