Riding profile

Bristol South

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Bristol South: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Green

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 29.6%
  • Labour 28.6%
  • Reform UK 21.6%
  • Conservative 12.1%
  • Lib Dems 5.8%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Labour Reform UK Conservative
HereBristol South 29.6%28.6%21.6%12.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 10.8% +18.8 21.8% +6.8 25.4% −3.7 19.3% −7.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bristol South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Karin Smyth

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
17.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Karin Smyth Elected Labour 18,521 42.7 —
Jai Breitnauer Green 10,855 25.0 —
Richard Visick Reform UK 6,195 14.3 —
Liz Brennan Conservative 4,947 11.4 —
Andrew Brown Lib Dems 2,721 6.3 —
Neil Norton Other 164 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,457
Median age
35
Employment rate
82.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029