Riding profile
North East Somerset and Hanham
The question
North East Somerset and Hanham: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth East Somerset and Hanham | 28.2% | 25.6% | 22.9% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +2.8 | 19.3% +6.3 | 21.8% +1.1 | 10.8% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North East Somerset and Hanham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dan Norris
Sits with Independent
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Norris Elected | Labour | 20,739 | 40.6 | — |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | Conservative | 15,420 | 30.2 | — |
| Paul MacDonnell | Reform UK | 7,424 | 14.5 | — |
| Dine Romero | Lib Dems | 3,878 | 7.6 | — |
| Edmund Cannon | Green | 3,222 | 6.3 | — |
| Nicholas Hales | Other | 231 | 0.5 | — |
| Barmy Brunch | Other | 211 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029