Riding profile

Filton and Bradley Stoke

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Filton and Bradley Stoke: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Filton and Bradley Stoke, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Claire Hazelgrove

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.9%
  • Reform UK 26.6%
  • Conservative 20.5%
  • Green 13.7%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereFilton and Bradley Stoke 28.9%26.6%20.5%13.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +7.2 25.3% +1.2 18.9% +1.6 11.8% +1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
19.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Claire Hazelgrove Elected Labour 22,905 45.5
Jack Lopresti Conservative 12,905 25.6
Stephen Burge Reform UK 6,819 13.5
James Nelson Green 4,142 8.2
Benet Allen Lib Dems 3,596 7.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,234
Median age
36
Employment rate
87.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029