Riding profile
Bristol Central
The question
Bristol Central: a safe seat for the Green Party?
Editorial read
Bristol Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 61% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Carla Denyer
Sits with Green
Current forecast
Green
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 40.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Green | Labour | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBristol Central | 61.5% | 22.0% | 8.7% | 3.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.8% +49.6 | 21.7% +0.4 | 25.3% −16.6 | 11.6% −8.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Denyer Elected | Green | 24,539 | 56.6 | — |
| Thangam Debbonaire | Labour | 14,132 | 32.6 | — |
| Samuel Williams | Conservative | 1,998 | 4.6 | — |
| Robert Clarke | Reform UK | 1,338 | 3.1 | — |
| Nicholas Coombes | Lib Dems | 1,162 | 2.7 | — |
| Kellie-Jay Keen | Other | 196 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029