Riding profile

Bristol Central

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Bristol Central: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Current forecast

Green

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 56.7%
  • Labour 24.3%
  • Reform UK 10.2%
  • Conservative 3.6%
  • Lib Dems 3.2%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Labour Reform UK Conservative
HereBristol Central 56.7%24.3%10.2%3.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 10.8% +45.9 21.8% +2.4 25.4% −15.1 19.3% −15.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bristol Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Carla Denyer

Sits with Green

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Green
Margin
24.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Carla Denyer Elected Green 24,539 56.6 —
Thangam Debbonaire Labour 14,132 32.6 —
Samuel Williams Conservative 1,998 4.6 —
Robert Clarke Reform UK 1,338 3.1 —
Nicholas Coombes Lib Dems 1,162 2.7 —
Kellie-Jay Keen Other 196 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,813
Median age
27
Employment rate
80.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029