Riding profile

Bristol North West

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Bristol North West: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.8%
  • Green 24.8%
  • Reform UK 18.7%
  • Conservative 12.6%
  • Lib Dems 7.9%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereBristol North West 33.8%24.8%18.7%12.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +12.0 10.8% +14.0 25.4% −6.7 19.3% −6.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bristol North West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 25% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Darren Jones

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
32.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Darren Jones Elected Labour 24,058 49.6 —
Mary Page Green 8,389 17.3 —
Laura Saunders Conservative 6,773 14.0 —
Scarlett O'Connor Reform UK 4,863 10.0 —
Caroline Gooch Lib Dems 4,159 8.6 —
Ben Smith Other 222 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,008
Median age
36
Employment rate
83.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029