Riding profile
Bristol North West
The question
Bristol North West: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Bristol North West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Darren Jones
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBristol North West | 32.5% | 28.0% | 18.1% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +10.9 | 11.8% +16.2 | 25.3% −7.2 | 18.9% −7.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Jones Elected | Labour | 24,058 | 49.6 | — |
| Mary Page | Green | 8,389 | 17.3 | — |
| Laura Saunders | Conservative | 6,773 | 14.0 | — |
| Scarlett O'Connor | Reform UK | 4,863 | 10.0 | — |
| Caroline Gooch | Lib Dems | 4,159 | 8.6 | — |
| Ben Smith | Other | 222 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029