Riding profile
Monmouthshire
The question
Monmouthshire: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.9
- P(close race)
- 10%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMonmouthshire | 29.0% | 23.1% | 16.6% | 12.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +9.7 | 25.4% −2.3 | 21.8% −5.2 | 10.8% +1.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Monmouthshire, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Catherine Fookes
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Fookes Elected | Labour | 21,010 | 41.3 | — |
| David Davies | Conservative | 17,672 | 34.8 | — |
| Max Windsor-Peplow | Reform UK | 5,438 | 10.7 | — |
| Ian Chandler | Green | 2,357 | 4.6 | — |
| William Powell | Lib Dems | 2,279 | 4.5 | — |
| Ioan Bellin | Plaid Cymru | 1,273 | 2.5 | — |
| Owen Lewis | Other | 457 | 0.9 | — |
| June Davies | Other | 255 | 0.5 | — |
| Emma Meredith | Other | 103 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029